- While Swiss bank UBS predicts Germany (10,000 computer simulations) will win the 2018 World Cup, Goldman (1 million tournament variations) picked Brazil.
- Comparing outcomes to teams’ winning rates, hedge fund BlueMountain Capital “found that luck contributed to 31 percent of Premier League soccer teams’ performance, compared to just 12 percent of NBA performance and 53 percent of NHL performance”.
- As total absolute skill rises in any sport/activity (ie information more widely available to investors), relative skill (competitive advantages) decline.
- Low-scoring sports are more luck-driven.
