- Rutger’s economists estimate that all developable land in Manhattan is worth $1.54-$1.95 trillion.
- The range derives from data on all vacant land transactions from 1950 to Q1 2015.
- 1st cycle (1950-1977): Suburban boom and NYC fiscal crisis dragged down prices (-3.1%/year).
- 2nd cycle (1978-1993): Late 1980s economic downturn and early 90s crime spike limited appreciation (+6.5%/year).
- 3rd cycle (mid 90s-2009): The return of corporations, high-paying jobs, and gentrification saw prices spike (+17%/year).
- 4th cycle (current): Continuation of 3rd cycle.
- Overall employment is the biggest driver of Manhattan land prices.
