- Research shows people assign different likelihood probabilities to everyday words such as “likely,” “far from certain” and “probably”.
- Late Yale history professor Sherman Kent sparked research into words used to express probabilities after finding 1951 CIA document stating “serious possibility” of Soviet attack on Yugoslavia meant 20-80% chance.
- “Political Safety”: Researchers found people apply vague terms to probabilities to give themselves an out for being wrong and credit for being right.
- Surveys show women are more likely to believe positive probabilistic words and phrases.
